Intesa Sanpaolo (ISP) Q4 2025 & Business update earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved record net income of €9.3bn in 2025, up 8% year-over-year, with best-in-class cost-income ratio, lowest-ever NPL inflows and stock, and strong capital position.

• Overdelivered on all previous business plan targets, with shareholder distribution 50% above target and €6.5bn in dividends plus €2.3bn buyback.

• New business plan targets net income above €11.5bn by 2029, sustainable ROE above 20%, and cost-income ratio at 37%.

• Strategic focus on technology, cost reduction, conservative revenue growth, and maintaining a zero NPL bank status.

• Significant ESG initiatives, including €26.7bn in social lending and €1bn deployed to fight poverty.

Financial highlights

• Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio increased to 13.9% (13.2% post-buyback), while distributing €8.8bn to shareholders.

• Net income: €9.3bn (+7.6% vs 2024), operating income: €27.3bn (+0.6%), operating margin: €15.8bn (+1.5%).

• Net fee and commission income: €10.0bn (+6.3%), insurance income: €1.8bn (+4.6%), cost/income ratio: 42.2% (lowest ever).

• Loans grew by €4bn in Q4; record year for commissions and insurance income.

• Cash dividend for 2025 up 10% year-over-year; €2.3bn buyback to be launched in July 2026.

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 net income expected at ~€10bn, driven by increased commissions and insurance income, stable costs, and low cost of risk.

• Cash payout ratio raised to 75%, with an additional 20% buyback, totaling 95% payout.

• By 2029, plan targets net income above €11.5bn, ROE above 20%, and cost-income ratio at 37%.

• Operating income CAGR of +3% to €30.7bn in 2029; cost/income ratio to improve to 36.8%.

• Conservative assumptions on rates and GDP growth; further upside possible from deposit and AUM conversion.