Japan Airlines (9201) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Revenue and profit increased year-over-year, with EBIT up 18.7% to 172.4 billion yen, driven by strong international passenger demand, domestic stimulus, and business model reforms.

• Year-end dividend proposal raised to 46 yen per share, annual dividend at 86 yen (payout ratio: 35%), with a forecast of 92 yen for FY2025.

• International passenger sales were strong due to inbound demand and outbound business recovery; domestic passenger sales remained stable.

• Operating expenses increased 9.8% year-over-year, mainly from yen depreciation and global inflation.

• JAL restructured its business segments to focus on Full Service Carrier, LCC, and Mileage/Finance & Commerce, aiming for profit growth.

Financial highlights

• FY2024 revenue: 1,844.0 billion yen (+11.6% y/y); EBIT: 172.4 billion yen (+18.7% y/y); Net profit: 107.0 billion yen (+12.0% y/y).

• Q4 revenue: 458.1 billion yen (+13.8% y/y); EBIT: 28.1 billion yen (+73.4% y/y); EBIT margin improved by 2.1pt y/y.

• EBITDA margin for FY2024: 17.8% (+0.1pt y/y); EBIT margin improved to 9.4% from 8.8%.

• Cash and cash equivalents at year-end increased to 749.0 billion yen, up 35.1 billion yen from the prior year.

• Dividend per share increased to 86 yen, with a forecast of 92 yen for FY2025.

Outlook and guidance

• FY2025 revenue forecast: 1,977.0 billion yen (+7.2% y/y); EBIT: 200.0 billion yen (+16.0% y/y); Net profit: 115.0 billion yen (+7.4% y/y).

• 90 new aircraft planned for introduction, focusing on fuel-efficient models to support growth and CO2 reduction.

• Free cash flow forecast to rise to 145.0 billion yen in FY2025.

• Assumptions: USD/JPY at 145, Singapore kerosene at $90/barrel.

• International and domestic passenger demand expected to exceed previous year and plan, with strong inbound and last-minute demand.