Joint Stock Company "National Company "KazMunayGas" (KMGZ) Q3 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Revenue for 9M 2024 increased by 4.3% year-over-year to $13,838 million, driven by higher oil sales and production, with oil and gas condensate output up 3.1% and oil transportation volumes up 6.4%.

• Free cash flow surged 121.2% to $2,207 million, while EBITDA declined 5.8% to $3,490 million compared to 9M 2023.

• Net profit for 9M 2024 was KZT 866,885 million (USD 1,890 million), down 8% year-over-year, mainly due to lower JV/associate income and higher expenses.

• Adjusted net profit (excluding JV/associate share) rose 70.6% to KZT 1,018 billion (USD 2,220 million).

• Oil refining volumes declined 5.2% to 14.1 million tonnes; refining capacity utilization varied by asset.

Financial highlights

• Revenue: $13,838 million (+4.3% YoY); EBITDA: $3,490 million (-5.8% YoY); Net profit: KZT 866,885 million (-8% YoY).

• Free cash flow: $2,207 million (+121.2% YoY); CAPEX (cash method): $889 million (-19.2% YoY); CAPEX (accrual): $969 million (-10% YoY).

• Net debt decreased 27.6% to $2,619 million; gross debt at $7,938 million as of September 30, 2024.

• Dividends paid to shareholders totaled KZT 300 billion in 2024.

• Cash and equivalents (including deposits) increased 21.2% to $5,318 million.

Outlook and guidance

• Moody’s upgraded the credit rating to Baa1 with a stable outlook, matching Kazakhstan’s sovereign rating.

• Oil prices remained stable with Brent averaging $82.8/bbl and KEBCO $83.2/bbl in 9M 2024.

• Kazakhstan's GDP growth slowed to 4.0% and inflation eased to 8.3% YoY.

• Ongoing investments in renewables and petrochemicals, including a 247 MW hybrid power plant and a $7.4 billion polyethylene plant.