Jupiter Mines (JMS) Q1 2025 TU earnings summary

Executive summary

• Record production achieved in August 2024, with Q1 output up 33% sequentially and 54% year-over-year; sales volumes were 1.04Mt, down 3% from last quarter but up 12% year-over-year.

• Inventory build was intentional to mitigate potential wet season disruptions; high-grade stockpiles increased only this quarter.

• Tshipi remained profitable and cash-generative despite weaker manganese prices, though EBITDA and NPAT fell sharply due to price declines and one-off demurrage charges.

• Manganese prices declined sharply, with the average spot price dropping 34% quarter-over-quarter to US$4.24/dmtu.

• Safety performance improved with one lost time injury recorded and TRIFR improving to 0.32.

Financial highlights

• FOB cost of production at US$2.33/dmtu, down 7% from last quarter but up 19% year-over-year, reflecting inflation and FX impacts.

• Average spot CIF manganese price dropped to US$4.24/dmtu from US$5.50/dmtu in June; ended September at US$3.74/dmtu.

• Tshipi's cash increased to A$96.8 million, despite inventory build and low prices; Jupiter's cash down to A$14.2 million due to dividend payments.

• One-off demurrage charge of ~ZAR 10M due to port issues affected all producers.

• Jupiter's marketing entity sold 535,018 tonnes, with average CIF price at US$4.34/dmtu and EBITDA of A$2.3 million.

Outlook and guidance

• December quarter volumes expected to be lower due to softer manganese prices and seasonal factors; not planning to sustain 4Mtpa run rate unless prices improve.

• Manganese ore supply from South Africa is expected to reduce in Q2 FY2025, potentially supporting prices.

• World Steel Association forecasts global steel demand to fall 0.9% in 2024 and rebound by 1.2% in 2025, with demand support expected if China's real estate stabilizes and infrastructure spending increases.

• Next Tshipi dividend decision expected post-December, likely communicated in March.