Lineage (LINE) Nareit REITweek: 2025 Investor Conference summary

Business performance and outlook

• Reaffirmed guidance of $3.40-$3.60 AFFO per share, with Q2 expected to mirror Q1 as a seasonal low, but new business is strengthening, supporting a strong second-half outlook and return to growth.

• Pricing has stabilized after recent pressures; 77% of annual contracts negotiated with a net 2.5% price increase, and expectations are for stable to upward pricing moving forward.

• Normal seasonal patterns in cold storage have resumed post-COVID, with second-half occupancy and inventories expected to lift, supporting guidance.

• Demand for frozen food remains stable, with low single-digit growth over several years, though recent food inflation has led to flat demand.

• Positioned to win in a flattish environment due to scale, technology, and automation, with a focus on gaining share and being the preferred partner.

Strategic initiatives and technology

• LinOS, a proprietary optimization software, is being rolled out to manual facilities, targeting 80% penetration in 2-4 years, with double-digit labor improvements seen in pilots.

• LinOS optimizes warehouse operations, densifies storage, and automates revenue capture, expected to materially impact cost structure and margins over the next several years.

• Productivity and cost-saving initiatives, including AI-driven customer service and global procurement, are ongoing to leverage scale and improve efficiency.

• Integrated solutions business (GIS) is a growth focus, with double-digit growth guided for the year, leveraging transportation and end-to-end cold chain services.

Growth, acquisitions, and financials

• Recently closed the largest cold storage deal globally with Tyson Foods, integrating 1,000 team members and expected to deliver $100M+ incremental EBITDA by 2030 and 10% development yields.

• Industry remains fragmented, with top 10 players holding only 20% global share; significant runway for accretive acquisitions and external growth.

• Maintains solid investment-grade status, mid-5s net debt to EBITDA, strong liquidity, and no near-term debt maturities after paying off $4B with IPO proceeds.

• External growth opportunities are global, with a focus on Southeast Asia and opportunistic acquisitions in developing markets.