Lithium Royalty (LIRC) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Fourth quarter 2024 revenue declined 39% year-over-year, mainly due to a 59% drop in spodumene prices, while full-year revenue fell 45% compared to a 71% decline in lithium chemical prices.

• Achieved 81% year-over-year growth in Lithium Carbonate Equivalent Tonnes (LCEts) in 2024, with annual revenue of $3.0 million, despite lower realized prices.

• Portfolio diversification and ramp-up by Sigma Lithium supported outperformance relative to lithium pricing indices.

• Cash costs were reduced by 26% year-over-year, reflecting strong cost discipline in a low-price environment.

• The company maintains a focus on high-grade, low-cost assets in mining-friendly jurisdictions, with several portfolio projects advancing toward production.

Financial highlights

• Q4 2024 royalty revenue was $621,000, up from $224,000 in Q3 but down from $1 million in Q4 2023.

• Full-year 2024 revenue was $3 million, down from $5.5 million in 2023, mainly due to lower volumes and prices at key assets.

• Net loss for 2024 was $2.7 million, an improvement from a $5.0 million loss in 2023.

• Adjusted EBITDA loss was $2.5 million for 2024 (vs. $306,000 loss in 2023); Q4 2024 loss was $877,000 (vs. $695,000 loss in Q4 2023).

• Cash at year-end was $7.2 million, with no debt; partial sale of Tres Quebradas royalty will add nearly $28 million.

Outlook and guidance

• Anticipates additional revenue from Ganfeng's Mariana project, Zijin's Tres Quebradas, and Sigma's phase II expansion.

• Expects catalysts from Atlas Lithium's Das Neves development, Core Lithium's Finniss restart, and Rio Tinto's recent acquisitions.

• Pipeline for new royalty acquisitions is robust, with a focus on cash-flowing or near-term cash flow opportunities.

• Market forecasts suggest strong lithium demand growth in 2025, with EV sales expected to rise 30% and energy storage demand potentially surging.

• Sigma Lithium targets 300,000 tonnes of spodumene concentrate in 2025 and 520,000 tonnes in 2026, with Phase II commissioning in 4Q25.