Louisiana-Pacific (LPX) Q4 2023 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q4 net sales were $658M, down 7% YoY; net income was $59M, adjusted EBITDA was $129M, up 29%, and adjusted diluted EPS was $0.71.

• FY 2023 net sales were $2.581B, down 33%; net income was $178M, adjusted EBITDA was $478M, and adjusted diluted EPS was $3.22.

• Improved operating efficiency, an improving single-family housing outlook and added mill and prefinishing capacity supported planned Siding and Structural Solutions growth.

Financial highlights

• Q4 net income was $59M and diluted EPS was $0.81; FY net income was $178M and diluted EPS was $2.46.

• Q4 adjusted EBITDA was $129M versus $100M YoY; FY adjusted EBITDA was $478M versus $1.389B.

• Q4 adjusted diluted EPS was $0.71, up $0.10 YoY; FY adjusted diluted EPS was $3.22, down $8.55.

• Operating cash flow was $159M in Q4 and $316M for FY 2023, down from $1.144B in FY 2022.

• FY 2023 operating income was $287M versus $1.250B in 2022; Q4 operating income was $89M versus $59M.

Outlook and guidance

• FY 2024 Siding revenue guidance is ~$1.45B, with 8–10% growth and $280–300M adjusted EBITDA; indicated margin is ~20%.

• FY 2024 OSB adjusted EBITDA guidance is $215–225M; consolidated adjusted EBITDA guidance is $495–525M.

• Q1 2024 guidance: Siding sales growth of 3–5% and adjusted EBITDA of $65–70M; OSB adjusted EBITDA of $65–75M; consolidated adjusted EBITDA of $130–145M.

• FY 2024 capital expenditures are expected at $200–220M, including $50–60M for strategic growth and $150–160M for maintenance.

• FY OSB and consolidated guidance assumes Q2–Q4 adjusted EBITDA at a $200M annual cycle-average run rate; LPSA adjusted EBITDA is assumed to offset Corporate and Other.