Madison Air Solutions (MAIR) Morgan Stanley's 14th Annual Laguna Conference summary

Strategic positioning and business model

• Operates in a $40 billion addressable market with only 8% share, focusing on mission-critical end markets benefiting from secular tailwinds.

• Employs a decentralized, customer-focused value creation model, emphasizing agility, value selling, and M&A.

• Balanced business with 65% commercial and 35% residential sales; 95% of sales are domestic, and 50% of revenue comes from replacement and upgrade markets.

• Leadership in both commercial and residential segments, with a diversified portfolio and strong Return on Air™ differentiation.

• Focus on making environments safer, healthier, and more productive through advanced air solutions, positioning air as a strategic asset.

Financial performance and outlook

• LTM sales reached $3.75 billion, with a 26.6% adjusted EBITDA margin and over $430 million in free cash flow as of June 30, 2026.

• Free cash flow margin ranged from 9.8% to 13.2% over recent quarters.

• Q3 revenue growth outlook raised to high teens, with adjusted EBITDA growth expected at about 10%.

• Backlog stands at $2.9 billion, providing visibility into 2027 and supporting a strong growth pipeline.

• Net leverage expected at 3.7x post-acquisition, with a clear path to under 2.5x within two years through EBITDA and cash flow generation.

Acquisition and combination with ebm-papst

• Announced a $5.0 billion acquisition of ebm-papst at a ~10x EBITDA multiple, nearly doubling addressable market to $70 billion and targeting $6.6 billion in 2026E combined net sales.

• Strategic fit centers on integrating EC fan technology, enhancing Return on Air, and expanding commercial opportunities.

• $160 million in cost synergies targeted by year three post-close, with additional revenue synergies anticipated; expected to be adjusted EPS accretive.

• Early planning affirms strategic and cultural fit, with positive customer and team reception.

• Purchase price reconciliation reflects an effective enterprise purchase price of $5.0B after adjustments and expected future tax savings.