Manawa Energy (MNW) H2 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• FY 2025 was marked by unprecedented hydrology challenges, fuel scarcity, extreme volatility, and a major customer default, resulting in sharp declines in earnings and profit after tax.

• The year was further complicated by the impending acquisition by Contact Energy, creating additional uncertainty for the team.

• Major asset refurbishment and enhancement projects were completed, delivering increased generation capacity and efficiency.

• The Board decided not to declare a final dividend for FY25 or provide FY26 guidance due to the pending acquisition by Contact Energy.

Financial highlights

• Reported EBITDA/EBITDAF was NZD 84 million (or $84.3M), down 42% year-over-year; normalised EBITDA/EBITDAF fell 37%.

• Profit after tax was NZD 0.3 million, down from NZD 24 million the previous year, including a NZD 30 million non-cash fair value loss on financial instruments.

• Underlying earnings after tax fell 52% to $31.5M.

• Net debt increased by NZD 49 million to NZD 501 million, reflecting lower profitability.

• Capital expenditure was NZD 52 million (or $52.5M), still elevated due to ongoing asset refurbishment.

• Ordinary dividends declared were 4.0 cps, down 79% from FY24; interim dividend of NZD 0.04 paid in December 2024; no final dividend declared.

• Bad debt expense of NZD 6.8 million from Prime Energy customer default; NZD 7 million in one-off transaction costs for the Contact Energy scheme.

Outlook and guidance

• No earnings guidance provided for FY 2026 due to the pending acquisition, expected to complete in July 2025.

• Consensus EBITDA forecast of NZD 150 million for FY 2026 is considered reasonable, but hydro generation will remain impacted by ongoing outages at key schemes.