MaxLinear (MXL) Citi’s 2026 Global TMT Conference summary

Portfolio and infrastructure

• Infrastructure exceeded 50% of latest-quarter revenue; R&D focus centers on data center, storage accelerators and wireless infrastructure, alongside broadband and industrial markets.

Optical roadmap and demand

• Current-year optical guidance midpoint is $220 million, with an estimated 70% 800G and 30% 400G mix; 400G is nearing end-of-life, while 800G is expected to grow this year and next.

• Rushmore is in customer qualification, with market launch expected mid-next year and full-scale production likely the following year; Washington TIA is sold alongside it.

• Optical guidance rose from above $100 million entering the year on market growth, higher-than-expected share and new customers; lead times are 26–28 weeks, with customer orders or forecasts covering next year.

• Indicative ASPs are $35–$50 for 800G and $80–$100+ for 1.6T before TIA; pricing is expected to remain firm through the end of next year amid supply constraints.

Competitive position and share opportunity

• The 800G solution uses ~20% less power than comparable competitor modules; differentiation also rests on retimers, TIAs, drivers, 18 months of mass production and expanded systems-engineering support.

• Current market share was estimated at 5%–7%, with an aspiration of 20%–25% over the next two to three years; share gains are underway, with broad engagement across data center and module customers.

• Samsung-based 1.6T sourcing adds supply-chain diversity; a sizable share gain is expected at the 1.6T transition, with wafer availability planned to meet customer demand.