MaxLinear (MXL) Stifel 2024 Cross Sector Insight Conference summary

Business overview and market focus

• Specializes in high-speed, high-frequency RF mixed signal and digital communication links for networking and wireless applications.

• Expanded from broadband access into infrastructure, including optical data centers, wireless infrastructure, and enterprise Ethernet.

• Industrial multi-market segment leverages IP from other markets for long-cycle, cash-generating products.

• Current focus is on entering the optical data center market with 800G PAM4 DSP and upcoming 1.6 Tb Rushmore product.

Recent performance and industry cycle impact

• Revenue peaked at $1.15 billion in 2022, with broadband and connectivity dropping from $800 million to $150-$200 million.

• Infrastructure revenues remained stable due to supply constraints, avoiding inventory issues seen in broadband.

• Pandemic-driven excess and double ordering led to unsustainable broadband peaks; recovery expected to pre-pandemic levels.

• Investments in infrastructure could have been accelerated for better positioning.

• R&D investments are now largely complete, with new products expected to drive revenue for the next five years.

Segment outlooks and growth drivers

• Broadband unlikely to return to pandemic peaks but expected to recover to $75-$100 million quarterly within 12-18 months.

• PON business is growing, with major Tier 1 operator wins and potential for further expansion in North America and Europe.

• PON revenues expected to more than double over the next two years; cable subscriber base eroding but ASP content rising.

• Broadband access and connectivity could reach $400-$500 million annualized in 2-3 years.

• Combined with infrastructure and industrial, total revenues could return to $1 billion by 2026-2028.