Mid-America Apartment Communities (MAA) BofA Securities 2025 Global Real Estate Conference summary

Strategic positioning and market trends

• Focused on high-demand Sunbelt and southwestern U.S. markets, which have seen record absorption and robust demand over the past year.

• New supply peaked last year but is now rapidly declining, with fourth-quarter deliveries down over 50% from the third quarter.

• Occupancy rates are nearly back to pre-COVID levels, up 190 basis points year over year, reflecting strong absorption of new supply.

• Renewal strength and high retention rates continue, with minimal change in move-out behavior.

• New lease rates remain pressured in high-supply markets like Austin, Phoenix, Nashville, and Jacksonville, but occupancy in these markets is now at or above portfolio average.

Demand drivers and outlook

• Absorption is outpacing new supply, with demand supported by job growth, migration, and single-family home unaffordability.

• Migration into the region remains strong at net 7%, and population growth continues to be robust.

• Single-family home prices and mortgage payments have risen much faster than rents, making renting more attractive.

• Retention rates have increased over the past decade, with many residents choosing apartments for lifestyle and affordability.

• Optimism remains for 2026, with expectations of economic growth as tariff and tax uncertainties subside and potential Fed rate cuts.

Supply dynamics and future expectations

• Supply in core markets is expected to decline 30-40% next year, taking deliveries below long-term averages.

• No significant overhang of unabsorbed new deliveries is anticipated, as market-level occupancies have stabilized.

• Concession behavior remains stable, with no recent increase in incentives despite high supply in some markets.

• Supply pipeline is expected to remain low through at least 2027, with a slow ramp-up due to lengthy entitlement and construction processes.

• Developers are not signaling a near-term increase in starts, and some have reduced staff, further limiting future supply.