Mid-America Apartment Communities (MAA) Q4 2023 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q4 2023 diluted EPS was $1.37 vs. $1.67 YoY; Core FFO per diluted share rose to $2.32 from $2.20. Full-year diluted EPS was $4.71 vs. $5.48, while Core FFO per diluted share increased to $9.17 from $8.50.

• Same Store Q4 revenue grew 2.1% YoY and NOI increased 0.1%, as higher operating expenses offset revenue growth amid new apartment supply pressure.

• Stable employment, positive migration and low resident move-outs supported demand; new deliveries are expected to decline in late 2024, supporting a better rent-growth outlook.

Financial highlights

• Q4 rental and other property revenue was $542.2M vs. $528.0M YoY; net income available to common shareholders was $159.6M vs. $192.7M.

• FY revenue was $2.148B vs. $2.020B; net income available to common shareholders was $549.1M vs. $633.7M.

• FY Core FFO per diluted share was $9.17 vs. $8.50; Core AFFO per diluted share was $8.24 vs. $7.67.

• FY dividends declared per common share were $5.67 vs. $4.9875; dividends/Core FFO payout ratio was 61.8% vs. 58.7%.

Outlook and guidance

• FY 2024 diluted EPS guidance is $4.45–$4.85; Core FFO per diluted share $8.68–$9.08; Core AFFO per diluted share $7.72–$8.12.

• FY 2024 Same Store guidance: property revenue growth 0.15%–1.65%, operating expense growth 4.10%–5.60%, and NOI growth -2.80%–0.20%.

• Q1 2024 Core FFO guidance is $2.12–$2.28 per diluted share, with a $2.20 midpoint; projected FY Core FFO decline versus 2023 midpoint primarily reflects higher interest expense.

• Four to six multifamily development starts are expected over the next 18–24 months; new apartment deliveries are expected to begin declining in late 2024.