Mizuho Financial Group (8411) Q4 2026 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Profit attributable to owners of parent reached JPY 1,248.6 billion, up 41% year-over-year and slightly above normalized earnings capacity, with a total payout ratio of 60%.

• Achieved all-time high Net Business Profits and Net Income for FY25, with ROE at 11.4%, surpassing the medium-term target two years ahead of schedule.

• Consolidated gross profits rose by JPY 556.8 billion year-over-year to JPY 3,477.2 billion, driven by strong fee business, yen depreciation, and higher policy rates.

• Updated medium-term targets aim for ROE over 12% by FY28, assuming no interest rate hikes, with a current P/B ratio of 1.5x.

• The macro environment in Japan is improving, with a virtuous cycle of prices and wages, increased retail financial investment, and proactive domestic investment.

Financial highlights

• Consolidated gross profits rose to JPY 3,515.6 billion (+18.5% YoY), with net business profits at JPY 1,461.1 billion (+27.6% YoY).

• Ordinary profits were JPY 1,573.1 billion (+JPY 405.0 billion YoY); net extraordinary gains were JPY 49.15 billion.

• Normalized profit for the previous fiscal year is estimated at JPY 1,150 billion.

• Targeting JPY 1,300 billion profit for the current fiscal year, with EPS forecast at JPY 533.10.

• Expense ratio improved to 59.4% despite higher G&A expenses from yen depreciation and inflation.

Outlook and guidance

• FY26 profit attributable to owners of parent projected at JPY 1,300.0 billion, with net business profits expected at JPY 1,630.0 billion.

• Dividend per share for fiscal 2026 is projected at JPY 150.0, up JPY 5.0 from fiscal 2025.

• FY 2028 ROE target of 12% is based on a flat policy rate of 0.75%; every 25-basis point rate hike could add 0.6–0.7 percentage points to ROE.

• Guidance for JPY 1,300 billion profit does not factor in potential Middle East conflict impacts.

• Medium-term targets updated: ROE over 12% and consolidated net business profits of JPY 1.8–2.0 trillion by FY28.