Mobileye Global (MBLY) Evercore ISI's Autonomous, ADAS & AI Forum summary

Core ADAS business and growth trajectory

• Core ADAS generates significant revenue and cash flow, with $1 billion in free cash flow and $1 of EPS, outperforming customer production and gaining market share.

• Growth opportunities exist in underpenetrated markets like India and Latin America, driven by increasing safety regulations and consumer demand.

• Evolving safety standards in North America and Europe require more advanced systems, increasing processing needs and average selling prices.

• Surround ADAS systems are expected to be adopted by more automakers, with a pipeline of six or seven new customers targeting launches in 2027-2028.

• Chinese business is smaller but stable, with about 6 million units shipped annually and strong relationships with local OEMs for European expansion.

Advanced autonomy: SuperVision, Chauffeur, and timelines

• SuperVision (Eyes-on) targets hands-free driving in most scenarios, launching with Porsche and Audi in late 2026 at $1,300 per unit.

• Chauffeur (Eyes-off) enables highway autonomy, launching with Audi in mid-2027 at $2,500-$3,000 per unit, with initial deployment as Eyes-on for regulatory validation.

• OEMs are prioritizing advanced ADAS for software-defined vehicles launching in 2027-2029, with urgency driven by safety ratings and technology differentiation.

• Volkswagen programs are critical for technology validation and risk reduction, enabling easier adoption by other automakers.

• Surround ADAS is being targeted for about a third of annual volumes at most automakers, and up to 100% at a few, due to cost and safety advantages.

Robotaxi and Level 4 commercialization

• Robotaxi business aims to remove safety drivers by mid-2025, with 150 test vehicles and partnerships with VW, Uber, Lyft, and Marubeni.

• Initial commercial deployments are planned for Florida, Los Angeles, Dallas, Hamburg, Berlin, Munich, and Oslo, with VW targeting 12,000 units over 4-5 years.

• Vehicles are produced on standard assembly lines for scalability, with business models focusing on supplying self-driving systems rather than fleet ownership.

• Regulatory environment in the U.S. is improving, with federal frameworks in development; Europe requires more rigorous certification, delaying driverless launches until late 2026.

• Expansion into larger form factors like 12-15 passenger shuttles is planned, with launches following VW's initial rollout.