Murphy USA (MUSA) Q4 2023 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q4 2023 net income rose to $150.0M from $117.7M YoY; FY net income declined to $556.8M from $672.9M.

• Q4 Adjusted EBITDA reached a record $275.2M; FY Adjusted EBITDA was $1,058.5M, down from $1,190.9M in 2022.

• FY fuel contribution exceeded $1.5B, while merchandise contribution increased 4.7% to $803.4M; focus remains on store growth and operational improvement.

Financial highlights

• Q4 total operating revenues were $5,068.9M versus $5,366.3M; FY revenues were $21,529.4M versus $23,446.1M.

• Q4 total fuel contribution increased 6.4% to $393.0M; FY contribution decreased 7.5% to $1,507.7M.

• Merchandise contribution rose 4.6% to $197.7M in Q4 and 4.7% to $803.4M for FY 2023; unit margin was 19.4% and 19.7%, respectively.

• Retail gallons were 1.2B in Q4 and 4.8B for FY, flat YoY in both periods; same-store volumes declined 2.0% in Q4 and 1.8% for FY.

Outlook and guidance

• 2024 guidance: 30–35 new stores, 35–40 raze-and-rebuilds, and retail fuel volume of 240–245K gallons per store per month.

• Merchandise contribution guided to $860–$880M; store OPEX excluding credit-card fees and rent to $35.0–$35.5K APSM; SG&A to $255–$265M.

• 2024 effective tax rate guidance is 24%–26%; capital expenditures are expected at $400–$450M.

• Modeling scenario only: at all-in fuel margins of 30.0–34.0 cpg and midpoints of official guidance, net income is estimated at $496–$631M and Adjusted EBITDA at $1.0–$1.2B.