National Bank of Canada (NA) 2026 RBC Capital Markets Global Financial Institutions Conference summary

ROE guidance and drivers

• Raised 2026 ROE target from 15% to 16% due to strong balance sheet growth, especially in commercial (12% growth) and mortgage (10% growth) books, robust capital markets, and effective cost/funding synergies.

• Capital markets expected to reach upper end of CAD 1.8–2 billion PTPP range; CWB cost and funding synergies at CAD 176 million to date.

• 2027 ROE target remains at 17%+, contingent on organic growth, Laurentian Bank integration, CWB revenue synergies, and AIRB conversion.

• Retail banking transformation plan could provide further upside to 2027 ROE, with more details expected by year-end.

• RWA growth is aligned with historical organic growth assumptions, supporting 5–10% earnings growth.

Business segment performance and growth

• Mortgage growth driven by favorable fundamentals in Quebec, including lower delinquency rates and house prices.

• Commercial loan growth remains in low double digits, with CWB integration expected to boost growth in the second half of the year.

• Capital markets maintain a defensive, diversified position, enabling resilience amid market volatility, with oil and gas exposure at ~1% of total loans.

• Trading results benefited from exceptional conditions last year; current defensive positioning remains a strength.

Capital management and buybacks

• NCIB program expanded to 14.5 million shares, with 45% executed in Q1; further buybacks possible in 2027 as CET1 ratio converges to 13%.

• Capital allocation prioritizes organic growth, sustainable dividends, and selective acquisitions; buybacks are a complement, not a primary strategy.

• Buybacks exclude benefits from AIRB conversion planned for Q4 2026.