NatWest Group (NWG) Barclays 22nd Annual Global Financial Services Conference summary

Macroeconomic and political environment

• UK is at an inflection point with improving GDP, house prices, and customer sentiment over the past 8–10 months.

• Mortgage volumes and business demand are recovering, indicating a more encouraging operating environment.

• The recent general election provided political stability, and the upcoming budget is expected to bring further policy clarity.

• Clients and customers are showing improved sentiment, especially after the election.

• The government is focused on driving economic growth, with policy and regulatory certainty seen as essential.

Revenue drivers and outlook

• Revenue growth has been broad-based across all customer franchises, with strong customer acquisition.

• Upgraded revenue guidance to around £14 billion for 2024, with £7 billion delivered in H1.

• Margin expansion has occurred in all three business segments for two consecutive quarters.

• The structural hedge is a significant tailwind, with expected benefits of £800 million in 2025 and more in 2026.

• Confident in income growth through 2024–2026, underpinned by loan demand and strong deposits.

Rate environment and sector positioning

• Extensive preparation for the rate cutting cycle, including operational processes and product range adjustments.

• Passed through about 60% of the first rate cut, with rational market responses from both incumbents and digital banks.

• Forecasts anticipate one more cut this year, five next year, and two the year after.

• Confident in the ability to balance funding needs, P&L, and competitive position during the rate cycle.