NCR Atleos (NATL) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved strong operational and financial performance in 2024, exceeding guidance for adjusted EPS and free cash flow, and establishing a solid foundation as an independent, ATM-centric public company after separation from NCR/Voyix.

• Drove growth across key P&L metrics, with new highs in revenue, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EPS, and free cash flow, supported by robust service backlogs and pipelines.

• Expanded customer base and partnerships, particularly in bank outsourcing solutions, and improved operational performance and customer service levels.

• Strategic focus on expanding service revenue per ATM, leveraging global scale for predictable free cash flow, and executing a services-led strategy.

• Recognized externally for service excellence and innovation, including the ATMIA Outstanding Service Award.

Financial highlights

• 2024 revenue reached $4.317 billion, up 3% year-over-year, led by services and software; recurring revenue grew 5% and now represents 73% of total.

• Adjusted EBITDA was $781 million, up 7% year-over-year, with margin expanding 60 basis points to 18.1%.

• Adjusted EPS was $3.22, exceeding guidance; free cash flow was $242 million, also above expectations.

• Q4 2024 revenue was $1.11 billion (+1% YoY), adjusted EBITDA $219 million (+23% YoY), and adjusted EPS $1.11 (+73% YoY).

• Full-year GAAP net income was $91 million, reversing a prior year loss, with diluted EPS of $1.23.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 core revenue expected to grow 3%-6% constant currency; total revenue up 1%-3% with 2% FX headwind.

• Adjusted EBITDA projected to grow 7%-10% (constant currency); adjusted EPS guidance $3.90-$4.10 (+21%-27%).

• Free cash flow guidance for 2025 is $260-$300 million; net leverage targeted to fall further from 3.2x.

• Q1 2025 expected to be seasonally weaker, with flat core revenue and modestly negative free cash flow due to inventory build.