Neinor Homes (HOME) H2 2023 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Completed the 2019–23 plan ahead of targets: deliveries beat guidance by 9%, EBITDA by 11% and adjusted net income by 20%.

• FY23 deliveries were 2,559; total revenue was €705m, adjusted EBITDA €129m and adjusted net income €99m. Year-end adjusted net debt was €211m and LTV 14.4%.

• FY23 shareholder distributions reached €126m; visibility extends to €325m of dividends over the coming 24 months, equivalent to €4.34 per share.

Financial highlights

• FY23 total revenue was €705m, including €111m from asset divestments recognized directly through margin; appendix revenue was €594m, down 22% YoY.

• Adjusted EBITDA was €129m, up 3% YoY, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 21.8%; EBITDA was €136m versus €140m forecast.

• Adjusted net income was €98.6m in the appendix (€99m rounded in the highlights), and adjusted EPS was €1.32 versus €1.21 forecast.

• FY23 deliveries were 2,559 versus guidance of 2,500; the €126m shareholder distribution was close to the €125m forecast.

• Across 2019–23, deliveries totaled 11,230 versus 10,300 forecast, EBITDA €654m versus €590m, and adjusted net income €443m versus €370m.

Outlook and guidance

• For 2024–25, guidance is ~2,000 deliveries, €600–700m revenue, €100m EBITDA, €65m net income and 20–25% LTV; land acquisitions are €25–150m.

• For 2026–27, guidance is more than 2,000 deliveries, €600–700m revenue, €100–110m EBITDA, €70–77m net income and 20–25% LTV; land acquisitions are €150m.

• Dividend guidance is €200–125m (€2.67–1.67 per share) for 2024–25 and €70m (€0.93 per share) for 2026–27; payment timing is subject to AGM schedules.

• JV activity is expected to lift medium-term EBITDA guidance by up to 10% (€10m), with a gradually positive effect in 2026–27 and earnings guidance uplift to ~€80m.

• From 2028, JV business is expected to generate €15–20m of recurring EBITDA from €500m AUM; co-investment AUM target is more than €500m for 2023–27.