Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX) 12th Annual Cantor Fitzgerald Global Healthcare Conference summary

Business transformation and growth

• Transitioned from a single-product to a multi-product company with INGREZZA, CRENESSITY, and VYKAT XR, achieving about $1 billion in quarterly sales and expanding the pipeline from 3 to nearly 20 programs in 3–5 years.

• Maintains a strong financial position, enabling flexibility and sustained investment in R&D across psychiatry, neurology, immunology, and endocrinology.

• Focused on building a durable, sustainable R&D engine and shifting valuation from a single-product to a diversified enterprise.

INGREZZA performance and market outlook

• INGREZZA continues robust growth after nine years on the market, with record new patient starts and total prescriptions in Q2, and exclusivity until 2038.

• Sales force expansions, most recently completed in Q2, have supported momentum, with the prescriber base for VMAT2 inhibitors growing 30% over two years.

• Only about 10% of the estimated 800,000 U.S. tardive dyskinesia patients are treated with approved VMAT2 inhibitors, indicating significant growth potential.

• 2026 guidance midpoint is $2.85 billion, reflecting 13% year-over-year growth despite a 4% price headwind; underlying volume growth is in the mid to upper teens.

Pricing, access, and regulatory dynamics

• Maintained strong Medicare coverage, rising from 30% to 70% in Med D plans, supporting volume growth.

• Faces statutory Medicare rebate increases: 2% in 2026, 5% in 2027, and 8% in 2028, with additional modest rebates to preserve access.

• IRA negotiation for INGREZZA delayed to 2029, when a 25–34% discount to non-FAMP will apply, likely causing a revenue dip but not a generic-like event.

• Offsets in 2029 include the end of catastrophic contributions and voluntary rebate agreements.