Nippon Express (9147) Q4 2023 earnings summary

Executive summary

• FY2023 revenue was ¥2,239.0 billion, down 14.5% YoY; segment income was ¥81.2 billion, down 40.9%, and attributable profit was ¥37.0 billion, down 65.8%.

• Weaker forwarding unit economics and volume, plus persistently sluggish domestic logistics, weighed on results; FY2023 revenue, operating income and attributable profit also fell short of the November forecast.

Financial highlights

• Operating income was ¥60.0 billion, down 61.4% YoY; operating margin was 2.7%, versus 5.9% in FY2022.

• Q4 revenue rose 3.7% QoQ to ¥563.6 billion and segment income rose 15.2% to ¥20.8 billion; operating income declined 21.7% to ¥8.6 billion.

• Q4 attributable profit increased 28.7% QoQ to ¥6.5 billion; overseas revenue rose 6.2% to ¥167.2 billion.

Outlook and guidance

• FY2024 guidance: revenue ¥2,500.0 billion (+11.7% YoY), segment income ¥85.0 billion (+4.6%), operating income ¥82.0 billion (+36.4%) and attributable profit ¥55.0 billion (+48.4%).

• Overseas revenue is forecast at ¥883.0 billion (+37.4%); FY2024 ROE is projected at 6.8%, with annual dividend per share of ¥300 and a 48.0% payout ratio.

• FY2024 forecasts imply weaker first-half operating income and attributable profit YoY, followed by second-half increases of 143.5% and 175.8%, respectively.

• Guidance assumes a second-half-and-beyond recovery in domestic and international logistics demand and is subject to risks and uncertainties; actual results may differ significantly.