Nippon Steel (5401) Q3 2026 earnings summary

Executive summary

• FY2025 underlying business profit forecast revised down to ¥620.0 bn, a decrease of ¥60.0 bn from the previous forecast, due to a deteriorating business environment and one-off impacts, including ¥40.0 bn in damage-related costs from blast furnace issues at Muroran.

• Revenue for the nine months ended December 31, 2025, rose 10.7% year-over-year to ¥7,256,323 million, but profit attributable to owners of the parent fell to a loss of ¥45,002 million from a profit of ¥362,077 million in the prior year period.

• A major business combination was completed with the acquisition of United States Steel Corporation, significantly expanding global capacity and presence.

• U.S. Steel's earnings are not factored into FY2025 guidance due to near-term uncertainties, despite improving U.S. market conditions.

• Full-year dividend for FY2025 maintained at ¥24 per share (¥120 pre-split), with a five-year cumulative payout ratio of approximately 30%, excluding one-off losses from the U.S. Steel transaction.

Financial highlights

• FY2025 revenue forecast at ¥10,000.0 bn, up ¥1,304.5 bn year-over-year.

• Underlying business profit (BP) forecast at ¥620.0 bn, down ¥173.7 bn year-over-year.

• Net profit forecast at ¥(70.0) bn, reflecting a ¥270.0 bn loss on transfer of equity interest in AM/NS Calvert and other one-off items.

• EPS for FY2025 projected at -13 yen per share.

• Total assets increased to ¥14,443,085 million from ¥10,942,458 million as of March 31, 2025.

Outlook and guidance

• Fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, revenue is forecast at ¥10,000,000 million, up 15.0% year-over-year.

• Business profit is projected at ¥420,000 million, down 38.5% year-over-year.

• No further expansion in Chinese steel exports expected due to declining Chinese demand and global trade measures.

• Dividend policy to maintain a 30% payout ratio with a minimum annual dividend of ¥24 per share for FY2026-2030.

• Market recovery signs in Europe and the U.S. due to tariffs, but risk of low-priced steel inflow into Japan remains.