NOCIL (NOCIL) Q3 24/25 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q3 FY25 revenue from operations was INR 318 crores, a 7% year-over-year decline and 10% sequential drop, with volumes down 10% sequentially but up 3% year-over-year due to lower demand and aggressive imports.

• Export growth was strong, driven by strategic customer engagement and product approvals, with export volumes in 9MFY25 growing at a high-teens rate year-over-year.

• Intense pricing pressure and product dumping from Chinese, Korean, and EU players impacted domestic prices and margins.

• Tire industry replacement and export demand in India is positive, but OEM demand is slow.

• Operational focus remains on efficiency, renewable energy, and R&D for value-added products.

Financial highlights

• Q3 FY25 revenue from operations was INR 318 crores, down from INR 363 crores in Q2 FY25 and INR 340.62 crores in Q3 FY24; nine months FY25 revenue was INR 1,053 crores (down 3% year-over-year).

• Q3 FY25 operating EBITDA was INR 24 crores (7.6%-8% margin), down 36% sequentially and 51% year-over-year; nine months FY25 EBITDA was INR 103 crores (10% margin).

• Q3 FY25 PAT ranged from INR 6 crores to INR 18.51 crores depending on reporting basis; nine months FY25 PAT was INR 82 crores (standalone) and INR 30 crores (consolidated).

• Q3 FY25 volumes grew 3% year-over-year but declined 10% sequentially; nine months FY25 volumes up 7% year-over-year.

• Standalone basic EPS for Q3 FY25 was ₹1.11; for nine months, ₹5.23.

Outlook and guidance

• Management expects the current volume dip to be temporary, with recovery anticipated in coming quarters.

• Volume growth guidance for FY25 and FY26 is 8%-10%.

• Cautious outlook on pricing, with continued pressure expected but signs of bottoming out.

• Long-term global rubber consumption growth of 2%-3% expected to return, though CY24 is forecast to decline by 2%.

• The company is pursuing a ₹250 crore capex program at Dahej to support long-term growth.