Norges Bank Investment Management (NBANK) H2 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved a 15.1% return in 2025, with fund value reaching 21,268 billion kroner, driven by strong performance in technology, financials, and basic materials sectors despite global uncertainty and climate impacts.

• Equity markets and renewables led gains, while real estate lagged and portfolio concentration risk increased, with the top 10 holdings constituting a significant share.

• New strategy emphasizes responsible investment, climate risk management, and sustainable value creation, with AI increasingly used for investment analysis and risk monitoring.

• Published comprehensive stress tests modeling severe scenarios, including AI correction, geopolitical fragmentation, regional debt crisis, and extreme weather.

Financial highlights

• Total return for 2025 was 15.1%, with accounting result before currency impact of 2,362 billion kroner and inflows after management costs of 319 billion kroner.

• Equities returned 19.3%, fixed income 5.4%, unlisted real estate 4.4%, and renewable infrastructure 18.1%.

• Technology sector contributed nearly NOK 900 billion, financials NOK 700 billion, and industrials NOK 300 billion.

• Krone appreciation against major currencies reduced fund value by 1,155 billion kroner.

• Relative return was -28 basis points versus the benchmark, mainly due to underweight in equities and flat real estate performance.

Outlook and guidance

• Expect continued volatility in technology, with debates on bubbles, profitability, and China competition; technology, financials, and basic materials expected to remain key contributors.

• Real estate fundamentals are improving, with cautious optimism for recovery in 2026.

• Renewables and infrastructure are set for further investment, focusing on robust returns and essential assets.

• Ongoing review of regional diversification, risk management, and enhanced due diligence in high-risk areas.

• Continued focus on responsible investment, climate risk, and nature risk as core financial risks.