Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd (NDM) Mining Forum Americas 2026 summary

Copper market outlook and project context

• Global copper demand is projected to outpace supply, with a 10 million ton deficit expected by 2035, driven by electrification, electric vehicles, and AI data centers.

• New copper discoveries have sharply declined despite rising exploration budgets, highlighting the scarcity of large new deposits.

• Global copper mine supply fell in the first half of the year, marking the first decline since 2017, partly due to weak output from major producers.

• The featured project is the world’s largest undeveloped copper-gold deposit, also containing significant rhenium, a critical metal for military and industrial uses.

• The project’s valuation could increase substantially if it advances to development stage, with significant upside potential.

Legal and permitting process

• The project is currently blocked by an EPA veto, which is being challenged in federal court alongside lawsuits from the state and local natives.

• The legal case is under summary judgment, with all arguments and oral presentations completed; a decision is expected soon, possibly by year-end.

• If the veto is overturned, permitting with the Army Corps of Engineers could resume, with the project already 80–90% through the process.

• The environmental impact statement predicts no visible impact on salmon populations, addressing a key criticism of the project.

• The EPA’s veto covers a 300-square-mile area, and its removal would require a formal administrative process if not decided by the court.

Strategic and financial considerations

• Attracting a new mining partner or consortium is a priority if permitting advances, leveraging extensive engineering and environmental studies already completed.

• Institutional ownership is expected to increase if the project moves to development stage, reversing the current retail-heavy shareholder base.

• The company holds CAD 53 million in cash as of June 30, providing runway for ongoing legal and permitting efforts.

• A royalty agreement with Kopernik allows them to purchase 10% of gold and 30% of silver production at a set price, representing about 3% of the deposit’s value.

• Kopernik’s position is secured on title, and they would share in damages if the project fails and a takings case is pursued.