Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Adjusted EBITDA rose 1% year-over-year to $1.63 billion, demonstrating resilience despite a 14% decline in average oil prices and a 2% reduction in share count.

• Q4 2025 production reached 140,064–140,100 Boe/d (53% oil), up 6% year-over-year and 7% sequentially, with record natural gas output up 24% year-over-year.

• Net debt declined modestly year-over-year, even after $340–$464.6 million in acquisitions, including a major Utica deal that expanded the land position and growth platform.

• Strategic capital allocation prioritized natural gas over oil, with oil spending minimized to preserve value for a better price environment.

• Paid $230.4 million to shareholders in 2025, including $173.4 million in dividends and $57.0 million in share repurchases.

Financial highlights

• Q4 Adjusted EBITDA was $366.5–$367 million; Free Cash Flow was $43.2–$43 million.

• Full-year Adjusted EBITDA was $1.63 billion; Free Cash Flow was $423.98–$424 million.

• Q4 Adjusted net income was $82 million ($0.83/share), excluding a $268.5–$270 million non-cash impairment; full-year Adjusted net income was $453.4 million ($4.57/share).

• Q4 oil production was 75,000 bbl/d (up 3% sequentially, down 5% year-over-year); gas production hit a record 392 MMcf/d (up 11% sequentially, up 24% year-over-year).

• Q4 oil price averaged $54.09/Bbl (unhedged), a $5.05 differential to WTI; gas price was $2.35/Mcf, about 58% of Henry Hub.

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 production guidance: 139,000–148,000 Boe/d, with oil at 68,000–76,000 Bbl/d.

• Capital expenditures budgeted at $850–$1,100 million, depending on activity scenario.

• Production expenses per Boe expected at $9.45–$10.10; oil price differential to WTI at ($5.50)–($6.50) per Bbl.

• Guidance includes two scenarios: low activity (higher Free Cash Flow, lower oil volumes) and high activity (lower Free Cash Flow, higher production), with CapEx cadence weighted to 1H 2026.

• Wells turned-in-line projected at 67.5–87.0 for 2026.