Nova (NVMI) Cantor Fitzgerald Global Technology & Industrial Growth Conference summary

Market outlook and demand drivers

• WFE spending expected to grow in low single digits through 2026, with strong demand from capacity additions as customers move from R&D to high-volume manufacturing.

• AI and HPC demand is driving capacity expansion across multiple customers and regions, not limited to a single player.

• Orders are already flowing in, especially for leading-edge technologies, with a robust pipeline.

Segment performance and technology transitions

• Gate-all-around transition is a major opportunity, with $500M revenue target for 2024–2026 driven by increased metrology intensity, market share gains, and material metrology adoption.

• DRAM and HBM markets are strong, with high demand and ongoing investments, though HBM capacity remains a constraint.

• NAND market shows improved pricing and profitability, but capacity additions are not expected until late 2026 or 2027.

Regional trends and China outlook

• China remains a significant market, contributing about 30% of revenues in 2026, but is expected to be flat in dollar terms and not a growth driver.

• Local competition in China is increasing, but technological gaps remain; ongoing R&D investment aims to maintain competitiveness.

• Product revenue split in 2025 is 75% logic and 25% memory, with China focused on mature nodes.