Novo Nordisk (NOVO) Q4 2023 London conference call earnings summary

Executive summary

• FY23 sales were DKK 232.261bn, up 31% reported and 36% at CER; operating profit was DKK 102.574bn, up 37% reported and 44% at CER, led by diabetes and obesity care.

• Diabetes value market share reached 33.8%, exceeding the 2025 aspiration of more than one-third; obesity care sales grew 154% at CER.

• More than 40 million people received diabetes treatment; 2024 priorities include reaching more patients, advancing the pipeline and expanding production capacity.

• Growth investments and shareholder returns continued amid obesity-care supply constraints and lower rare-disease manufacturing output.

Financial highlights

• Q4 sales increased 37% reported and 43% at CER to DKK 65.9bn; operating profit rose 57% reported and 66% at CER to DKK 26.8bn.

• Q4 net profit rose 62% to DKK 22.0bn; diluted EPS increased 63% to DKK 4.91.

• FY23 net profit increased 51% to DKK 83.683bn; diluted EPS rose 52% to DKK 18.62.

• Diabetes and obesity care generated DKK 215.098bn in sales, up 42% at CER and accounting for 105% of reported sales growth; rare-disease sales fell 15% at CER.

Outlook and guidance

• FY24 sales growth is forecast at 18–26% at CER, around 1 percentage point lower reported; operating profit growth is forecast at 21–29% at CER, around 2 points lower reported.

• FY24 free cash flow guidance is DKK 64–74bn; effective tax rate is expected at 19–21%, and net financial items are expected to be a gain of ~DKK 1.3bn.

• FY24 CAPEX is expected at ~DKK 45bn; depreciation, amortisation and impairment are expected at ~DKK 10bn, with CAPEX-to-sales remaining in the low double digits in coming years.

• Guidance assumes continued volume growth alongside intensifying competition, pricing pressure and periodic supply constraints; International Operations Wegovy rollout assumes capped volumes.