Novonesis (NSIS) Status Update summary

Market trends and growth drivers

• Energy represents ~half of the Agriculture, Energy, and Tech group, which accounts for 35-36% of turnover; growth is driven by rising fuel demand, decarbonization, chemical replacement, and energy independence.

• Liquid biofuel volumes are expected to grow and diversify geographically, supported by policy across North America, Latin America, India, and Europe; North America remains the largest market, with strong growth in Latin America and India.

• Diversification across end markets, feedstocks, and geographies reduces volatility and supports growth optionality, including DDGS, corn oil, sustainable aviation fuel, grain, vegetable oils, and biomass.

• Liquid sustainable fuels are critical to transport decarbonization, with biofuels expected to grow through 2030-2035; sustainable aviation fuel demand is projected to rise through 2050.

Innovation and market diversification

• Revenue drivers have broadened beyond a U.S.-centric, enzyme-only business, supporting outperformance versus underlying U.S. ethanol volume growth.

• Biomass-based ethanol and renewable diesel offer substantial upside; enzyme-based biodiesel has ~10% market penetration, with mandates in Brazil, India, Malaysia, South Korea, and Japan supporting adoption.

• Expansion into new enzyme classes and yeast traits is unlocking value streams and improving customer performance; Innova Eclipse is among new yeast products being launched.

• Innovation emphasizes customer intimacy, tailored solutions, and annual performance improvements of 1-2%; crop bioenergy solutions are introduced on short, often annual, cycles.

SAF and future opportunities

• SAF pathways include HEFA, Fischer-Tropsch, alcohol-to-jet (AtJ), and power-to-liquid; HEFA is expected to lead initially, followed by AtJ and advanced fuels.

• Biosolutions can support pretreatment, ethanol-to-jet conversion, and biogenic CO2 supply for e-fuels.

• If SAF reaches 30% of aviation fuel, ethanol-to-jet could represent 7-27 billion gallons, compared with the current 30 billion gallon global ethanol market.

• AtJ could significantly expand global ethanol production by 2040, contingent on regulatory clarity and technology deployment; incentives are also key to scaling SAF.