NuVista Energy (NVA) Investor Day 2024 summary

Strategic outlook and growth plan

• Five-year production growth target increased to 125,000 BOE/d by 2028, representing 150% growth since 2020 and a 20% CAGR per share, supported by a multi-decade, de-risked Montney inventory and signed infrastructure contracts.

• Capital spending will average CAD 550–600 million annually, with 2024 guidance at approximately $500 million, focused on infrastructure expansions in Pipestone and Wapiti to support growth.

• Shareholder returns prioritized through a framework allocating 75% of free adjusted funds flow to share buybacks, with flexibility to increase to 100% or pursue tuck-in acquisitions and M&A as opportunities arise.

• No major M&A planned unless highly accretive; focus remains on disciplined organic growth and selective land acquisitions to bolster inventory.

• Minimal net debt and strong liquidity position support continued disciplined growth and capital returns.

Asset base, technical advancements, and operational execution

• Multi-bench Montney development underpins longevity, with over 1,500 locations and 20+ years of inventory; three-bench co-development reduces acreage consumption and extends reserve life.

• Pipestone and Wapiti assets each expected to contribute roughly half of future production, with Pipestone targeting ~62,000 Boe/d by 2026 and Wapiti by 2028; both benefit from cost reductions and technical innovation.

• Technical innovations, including geo-tailored completions and optimized frac sequencing, have improved drilling and completion efficiency, reducing costs by 5–15% and enhancing productivity.

• Infrastructure expansions and debottlenecking (CSV Albright gas plant, Elmworth and Gold Creek Compressor Stations) are underway to support production ramp-up and operational flexibility.

• Condensate-rich production mix provides a natural hedge, with condensate comprising one-third of volumes but two-thirds of revenues, supporting robust netbacks and recycle ratios.

Financial guidance and capital allocation

• Projected CAD 2.8 billion in free adjusted funds flow from 2021–2028, with annual FAFF at plateau reaching $425–$450 million in core assets and healthy 15–25% returns on average capital employed.

• Since 2022, $370 million has been returned to shareholders via share repurchases, with a total of 31.3 million shares cancelled and 13% of shares retired.

• Low net debt and strong financial flexibility, supported by a covenant-based facility and term note market presence, position the company for continued disciplined growth and opportunistic capital deployment.

• Full-cycle asset returns remain robust (40%+ at $80 WTI/$4 NYMEX; high 20% at $65/$3), with sub-one-year payouts across core areas even in lower price environments.

• Ongoing focus on cost discipline, technical innovation, and operational excellence to sustain high margins and shareholder value.