Oakley Capital Investments (OCI) H2 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Net asset value (NAV) at December 2024 was GBP 1.2 billion, or GBP 695 per share, up 15 pence year-over-year, with a total NAV return of 2% (6% pre-FX).

• Portfolio value increase was driven 75% by EBITDA growth, with muted NAV growth due to macro headwinds and a conservative exit environment.

• Eight new deals were completed in 2024, five in technology, reflecting a record level of deployment and a focus on founder-led, asset-light businesses.

• Realizations delivered GBP 159 million despite a subdued M&A market, with exits close to NAV, highlighting robust valuations.

• Anticipated return to historic NAV CAGR of 15%-20% in 2025, driven by maturing investments and improved market conditions.

Financial highlights

• Portfolio companies' average organic EBITDA growth was 15% over the last 12 months, rising to 21% including M&A.

• Largest contributors to NAV growth: IU Group (+8p/share), Dexter Group (+7p/share), Phenna (+7p/share).

• Negative drivers: Vice Golf (-3p/share), TechInsights (-2p/share), Thomas's Private Schools (-1p/share).

• Average net debt/EBITDA at 4.1x, with no maturities in the next 2.5 years; interest cover at 3x.

• Average valuation multiple unchanged at 16.4x EV/EBITDA.

Outlook and guidance

• NAV growth expected to accelerate in 2025 as recent investments mature and macro conditions improve.

• Fund Five (2022 vintage) anticipated to contribute 150-200p to NAV per share over the next three years, driven by 28% annual average EBITDA growth.

• Deployment in 2025 expected to be around half of 2024's level, with a continued focus on tech and business services, especially in the UK and Southern Europe.

• Board is pursuing a main market listing on the London Stock Exchange to boost liquidity and investor access.