Opal Fuels (OPAL) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Adjusted EBITDA for 2025 was $90.2 million, flat year-over-year, despite a 28–29% increase in RNG production and lower RIN prices, with Q4 Adjusted EBITDA at $34.2 million, up 51% year-over-year, driven by higher production and tax credits.

• Fuel Station Services segment achieved strong growth, with EBITDA up 22% to $46.7 million and revenue reaching $215 million in 2025.

• The company strengthened liquidity with a $180 million preferred stock facility, issuing $120 million and redeeming $100 million of existing preferred units, and drew $128 million under its senior secured credit facility.

• RNG production reached 4.9 million MMBtu in 2025, up 28–29% year-over-year, with Q4 production at 1.3 million MMBtu, up 20–28%.

• Full-year revenue was $349 million, up 16% year-over-year, and net income rose to $36.4 million from $14.3 million in 2024.

Financial highlights

• Q4 2025 revenue was $99.8 million and adjusted EBITDA was $34.2 million, up from $80 million and $22.6 million in Q4 2024.

• Full-year adjusted EBITDA was $90.2 million, flat year-over-year, as lower RIN prices offset operational gains.

• D3 RIN prices averaged $2.45 in 2025, down from $3.13 in 2024, reducing adjusted EBITDA by $33 million; each $0.10/gallon change impacts EBITDA by $5–$6 million.

• ISCC pathway expiration in November 2024 reduced adjusted EBITDA by over $10 million.

• Net income for Q4 2025 was $16.2 million, compared to a loss of $5.4 million in Q4 2024.

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance is $95 million–$110 million, representing ~14% growth at the midpoint, assuming a $2.45/gallon D3 RIN price.

• RNG production guidance for 2026 is 5.4–5.8 million MMBtu, over 14% growth versus 2025.

• Guidance includes $15–$20 million of 45Z credits and factors in a challenging winter start to 2026.

• Each $0.10/gallon change in D3 RIN price impacts adjusted EBITDA by $5–$6 million.

• Fuel Station Services segment expected to see stronger growth in 2027 as new fleet deployments ramp up.