Orrön Energy (ORRON) Q4 2025 & CMD 2026 earnings summary

Executive summary

• 2025 was marked by low and volatile Nordic power prices, impacting revenues and investment decisions, but also saw the first revenues from project sales and grid access secured for six large-scale UK projects.

• Production reached 839 GWh, with revenues of EUR 34 million at an achieved price of EUR 36/MWh, below long-term forecasts.

• The business is structured around long-term Nordic assets, a growing greenfield pipeline, and a fully funded platform for growth, validated by initial divestments and a maturing project pipeline in Germany, the UK, and France.

• The Sudan legal case is expected to conclude in 2026, reducing ongoing legal costs and potentially unlocking new institutional investment.

• The company maintained carbon neutrality for Scope 1 and 2 emissions, improved ESG ratings, and achieved 100% EU Taxonomy alignment for revenues and OpEx.

Financial highlights

• 2025 revenue reached EUR 34 million, with EBITDA of EUR -2 million and net debt of EUR 89–90.5 million at year-end.

• Q4 2025 power generation was 226 GWh, with quarterly revenues of EUR 11 million and EBITDA of EUR 3 million.

• Achieved price for 2025 was EUR 36/MWh, reflecting a 15–22% premium to the Nordic system price but a 22% capture price discount.

• Tax balances in Sweden and Finland exceed EUR 500 million, enabling potential cash tax savings of EUR 100 million over coming years.

• Cash flows from operating activities were negative, with cash and cash equivalents at year-end of EUR 15.9–16 million.

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 production guidance is 800–950 GWh, with curtailment assumptions similar to 2025.

• OpEx expected at EUR 19 million, G&A at EUR 8 million, legal costs at EUR 4 million, and CapEx at EUR 11 million, fully funded by greenfield revenues.

• EBITDA for 2026 is forecast between EUR 5–22 million (excluding Sudan legal costs), with free cash flow pre-CapEx between breakeven and EUR 17 million.

• Greenfield divestments expected to deliver up to EUR 14–18 million in contracted revenues over 2026–2027.

• Higher electricity prices and recurring greenfield revenues are expected to drive improved profitability.