Osaka Gas (9532) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• FY24.3 ordinary profit rose 199.5% to ¥226.6bn, mainly as prior-year Freeport LNG procurement costs fell away and fuel-cost adjustment timing turned favorable.

• FY24.3 ROIC was 6.1% excluding time-lag effects and 7.0% including them, above the Medium-Term Management Plan 2023 target of ~5%.

Financial highlights

• FY24.3 net sales fell 8.4% to ¥2,083.0bn; operating profit was ¥172.6bn and profit attributable to owners was ¥132.7bn.

• FY24.3 EPS was ¥320.60 versus ¥137.39; EBITDA rose 70.2% to ¥328.1bn and NOPAT rose 184.5% to ¥168.8bn.

• Operating cash flow was ¥312.6bn, investing cash outflow ¥215.9bn and financing cash outflow ¥110.1bn; free cash flow was ¥96.6bn versus negative ¥170.3bn in FY23.3.

• FY24.3 ordinary profit of ¥226.5bn and attributable profit of ¥132.6bn exceeded January forecasts of ¥170.0bn and ¥116.0bn, respectively.

Outlook and guidance

• FY25.3 forecast: net sales ¥1,986bn (-4.7%), operating profit ¥123.5bn, ordinary profit ¥153bn (-32.5%), parent-attributable profit ¥112bn (-15.6%) and EPS ¥273.87.

• FY25.3 ROIC is forecast at 4.7% and ROE at 7.0%; lower time-lag profit and the absence of FY24.3 temporary gains weigh on results.

• Guidance assumes crude oil at $75/bbl and ¥145/$; forecast gas sales are 6,659mn m³ and electricity sales 15,964GWh.

• FY25.3 annual dividend is planned at ¥95/share, up ¥12.5 YoY, under the new DOE 3% policy.