Pagaya Technologies (PGY) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved record GAAP net income of $81 million for 2025, up $483 million year-over-year, with Q4 net income of $34 million, reflecting a significant turnaround from prior losses.

• Total revenue for 2025 was $1.3 billion, up 26% year-over-year, with Q4 revenue of $335 million, up 20% year-over-year.

• Adjusted EBITDA for 2025 was $371 million, up 76% year-over-year, with Q4 Adjusted EBITDA of $98 million, up 53% year-over-year.

• Focused on disciplined risk management, reducing exposure to higher-risk credit segments and maintaining prudent underwriting.

• Onboarded new partners and expanded product suite, including forward flow agreements and new ABS structures.

Financial highlights

• Q4 2025 revenue: $335 million (up 20% year-over-year); FRLPC: $131 million (up 12%); Adjusted EBITDA: $98 million (29% margin).

• Full-year 2025: $1.3 billion revenue (up 26%), $512 million FRLPC (up 26%), $371 million adjusted EBITDA (up 76%), $81 million GAAP net income, EPS $0.93.

• Network volume Q4: $2.7 billion (up 3% year-over-year); full-year: $10.5 billion (up 9%).

• FRLPC margin for 2025: 4.9%, up from 4.5% in 2024.

• Adjusted net income for 2025: $275 million; Q4 adjusted net income: $79 million.

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 guidance: network volume $11.25–$13 billion, revenue $1.4–$1.575 billion, adjusted EBITDA $410–$460 million, GAAP net income $100–$150 million.

• Q1 2026 guidance: network volume $2.5–$2.7 billion, revenue $315–$335 million, adjusted EBITDA $80–$95 million, GAAP net income $15–$35 million.

• FRLPC margin expected between 4%–5% for 2026, with $100–$150 million in credit-related impairments assumed.

• Guidance reflects persistent macro and credit uncertainty, with potential upward adjustment if conditions improve.

• Management unable to reconcile non-GAAP to GAAP outlook due to unpredictability of certain items.