PageGroup (PAGE) Q3 2024 TU earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q3 2024 gross profit was £201.4m, down 13.5% year-over-year in constant currency, reflecting challenging market conditions and subdued client and candidate confidence across all regions, with further softening in Europe.

• Temporary recruitment outperformed permanent, with temp gross profit down 8.6% and perm down 15.3% year-over-year; perm to temp gross profit ratio was 71:29.

• Fee earner headcount reduced by 98 (1.8%) in Q3, mainly in Europe, to 5,500, with productivity per fee earner down 4% year-over-year.

• The business remains highly diversified and adaptable, with the Board expecting FY 2024 operating profit broadly in line with consensus (£58m).

Financial highlights

• Group gross profit declined 13.5% in constant currencies to £201.4m; FX reduced reported growth by 3.2 percentage points (£8m).

• Net cash at 30 September 2024 was approximately £93m, up from £57m in Q2 2024.

• Interim dividend of £16.8m paid in October 2024.

• Permanent recruitment gross profit fell to £142.8m (-15.3%); temporary fell to £58.6m (-8.6%).

• Gross profit per fee earner declined 4% year-over-year; total headcount 8.6% lower than Q3 2023.

Outlook and guidance

• 2024 full-year operating profit expected to be broadly in line with market consensus of £58m.

• No signs of market improvement, especially in Europe; intention to maintain fee earner headcount to capitalize on future recovery.

• Cautious outlook for France and Germany due to political and economic uncertainty; temp activity in France and sentiment in Germany both deteriorated in Q3.