Raízen (RAIZ4) Q2 24/25 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Net revenue rose 23% year-over-year to BRL 72.9 billion, driven by strong sugar segment performance and higher ethanol sales, despite margin compression in Renewables and Mobility.

• Adjusted EBITDA was BRL 5,976 million, down 15% year-over-year, shaped by accelerated sugar shipments at better prices, lower ethanol exports, and electricity price volatility.

• Adjusted net loss was BRL 96.7 million, with sugar profitability offset by declines in other segments and higher income tax expenses.

• Leverage increased to 2.6x from 1.9x, reflecting higher net debt and extended average debt maturity to 6.3 years.

• Severe droughts and wildfires in Brazil impacted sugarcane productivity, with crushing expected at 78.5–80 million tons, outperforming the national decline.

Financial highlights

• Adjusted EBITDA was BRL 5,976 million, down 15% year-over-year; recurring CAPEX was BRL 2.3 billion, down 9%.

• CAPEX totaled BRL 2.4 billion, up 4% year-over-year, focused on E2G expansion and agricultural productivity.

• Free cash flow reflected liability management, business seasonality, and significant working capital outflows.

• Monetized tax credits remained robust, above BRL 1 billion for the quarter.

Outlook and guidance

• 2024/25 guidance: Adjusted EBITDA expected at BRL 14.5–15.5 billion (+14% vs. prior year midpoint); CAPEX guidance at BRL 10.5–11.5 billion (-13%).

• Sugarcane crushing projected at 78.5–80 million tons with neutral cost dynamics and more favorable pricing.

• E2G: Four operational plants expected, producing and exporting over 80 million liters of cellulosic ethanol.

• CapEx is expected to be at the lower end of the range, with a focus on financial discipline and expense management.

• The company is optimistic about sugar, ethanol, and energy commercialization for the remainder of the crop year.