Ryanair (RYA) Q1 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q1 profit fell 46% year-over-year to €360m, as average fares dropped 15% despite 10% traffic growth to 55.5m passengers; revenue declined 1% to €3.63bn and operating costs rose 11%.

• Record summer bookings are being achieved, but at lower prices, requiring aggressive fare stimulation to maintain load factors.

• Ryanair maintains Europe's lowest-cost position, a strong balance sheet, and continues to expand its network, operating 95 bases and 600 aircraft at peak S.24, with 350 more on order.

• Ongoing operational challenges include significant ATC delays and Boeing aircraft delivery shortfalls, impacting capacity and costs.

• Over 50% of a €700m share buyback completed; final dividend of €0.178 per share to be paid in September.

Financial highlights

• Net income: €360m, down 46% year-over-year; revenue: €3.63bn, down 1%; operating costs: €3.26bn, up 11%.

• Net cash improved to €1.74bn as of June 2024, with gross cash at €4.5bn after significant CapEx and buyback spending.

• Free cash flow remained strong, supported by high booking volumes and lower CapEx due to delayed aircraft deliveries.

• EPS: €0.316 (basic), down 46% year-over-year.

• Operating profit: €366m, down 49% year-over-year.

Outlook and guidance

• FY25 traffic expected to grow 8% to 198-200m passengers, contingent on no further Boeing delays.

• Unit costs are expected to rise modestly, offset by fuel hedge savings and higher net interest income.

• Q2 fares are projected to be materially lower than last summer, with potential for double-digit declines; visibility for Q3 and Q4 remains low.

• No meaningful full-year profit guidance provided due to booking and yield uncertainty; H1 update expected in November.

• Decade-long growth plan targets 300m passengers annually by FY34, driven by MAX-10 order.