Santos (STO) Investor Day 2026 summary

Strategic focus and asset portfolio

• Investment is prioritized in three core growth hubs: Alaska, Papua New Guinea (PNG), and Australia, focusing on tier 1 basins for long-term, high-margin growth and leveraging advantaged infrastructure and scale.

• Barossa and Pikka projects are ramping up, with Barossa expected to reach plateau production in Q3 and Pikka Phase 1 targeting 80,000 bbl/d gross in Q3 2026; both mark a cash flow inflection point.

• Beetaloo and Bedout Basins in Australia are being appraised for potential to become additional tier 1 growth hubs, with Beetaloo appraisal spudding in 2026 and Bedout exploration planned for 2027.

• PNG and Alaska assets offer significant running room and optionality, providing flexibility amid regulatory or market challenges in Australia.

• Strategic review has repositioned the Australian domestic oil and gas business to lower capital intensity and higher margins, prioritizing domestic gas, decommissioning, and focusing capital on the Cooper Basin.

Financial guidance and capital allocation

• Targeting a 4% CAGR in production through 2025, with a free cash flow breakeven of $45-$50/bbl and sustained production guidance of 100-120 mmboe per year.

• Every $10 increase in oil price above breakeven generates $550–$600 million in free cash flow annually from end-2026 once Barossa and Pikka reach plateau.

• Net debt reduction target of $2.5 billion by 2030, aiming for the lower end of the 15%-25% gearing range and reducing annual interest by $150 million.

• Minimum 60% of free cash flow above breakeven to be returned to shareholders, with up to 100% when below target gearing; ~$4.6 billion returned since 2016.

• CapEx guidance of ~$10 billion over the next five years, including Papua project, with flexibility to pivot investment between regions as needed.

Growth projects and operational highlights

• Barossa LNG project is online and ramping, targeting plateau production by mid-2026, expected to keep GLNG full until 2040, with low unit production costs and CCS opportunities.

• Pikka Phase 1 in Alaska has achieved first oil, with ramp-up to 80,000 bbl/d gross in Q3; expansion and adjacent prospects (Quokka, Horseshoe) could triple output.

• Beetaloo appraisal campaign to drill three development-style wells, targeting stacked shales to prove up 5 TCF and enable large-scale development, with appraisal spudding in 2026.

• Papua LNG FID targeted for year-end or H2 2026, with project financing expected to cover up to 60% of CapEx, minimizing near-term equity draw; multiple PNG LNG backfill projects in execution.

• Bedout Basin appraisal planned for 2027, with Dorado FEED-ready and potential to become a fourth tier 1 basin.