Sasol (SOL) H1 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Strategic focus on strengthening core businesses, maximizing free cash flow, and advancing transformation for sustainability and stakeholder value, while navigating a challenging macro environment with lower oil prices, weaker refining margins, and lower volumes.

• Five key priorities: safety, international chemicals profitability, restoring South African value chain, responsible transformation, and free cash flow generation.

• Safety performance mixed: fatality-free since August 2024, but one fatality and 30 hospitalisations in H1 FY25; major safety initiatives and system reviews underway.

• Strategic initiatives included cost efficiency, asset optimisation, and market focus to drive long-term value.

Financial highlights

• Revenue declined 10% year-over-year to R122.1 billion, mainly due to lower Brent crude oil prices, refining margins, and sales volumes.

• Adjusted EBITDA for H1 FY25 at R23.9–24 billion, down 15% year-over-year; margin at 20% (down 1%).

• Free cash flow improved by 84% year-over-year, but remained negative at R-1.1 billion; cash generated by operations up 20%.

• Basic EPS decreased 52% to R7.22; headline EPS down 31% to R14.13.

• Capital expenditure R15 billion, 6% lower than prior period.

Outlook and guidance

• Focus on volume recovery, cost and capital discipline, and bringing net debt below US$4 billion by year-end; free cash flow expected to improve in H2.

• Targeting production of 6.8–7 million tons at Secunda with all-in break-even cost below $60/bbl for FY25.

• International Chemicals aiming for US$100–200 million EBITDA uplift in FY25, with margin target above 10%.

• Working capital targeted within 15.5–16.5% of turnover; capex forecast R28–30 billion.

• Further details on capex and strategic agenda to be shared at Capital Markets Day in May 2025.