Serena Energia (SRNA3) Q1 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• 1Q25 production was 1,899.2 GWh, down 2.7–3% year-over-year, mainly due to non-recurring curtailment and transmission grid failures; production would have grown 9% YoY without these events.

• EBITDA was R$310.3 million, down 16% YoY, impacted by curtailment, end of PTC special allocation, and higher opex & expenses.

• Net income was -R$176.5 million, a R$72 million decrease YoY, driven by lower EBITDA and higher financial expenses.

• A take-private proposal at R$11.74/share offers a 122.3% premium to the 02/01/2025 closing price and 24.6% premium to the last 30-day VWAP.

• Transmission issues are now resolved, and improved results are expected for the remainder of 2025.

Financial highlights

• Consolidated net revenue reached R$1,156.3 million, up from R$687.9 million YoY.

• Adjusted energy gross profit was R$506.9 million, down 3% YoY; unit gross profit was R$269.8/MWh, down 1%.

• Cash earnings dropped 89% YoY to R$2 million; recurring FCF fell 56% YoY to R$124 million.

• Net loss attributable to shareholders was R$155.8 million, versus net income of R$135.8 million in Q1 2024.

• Operating cash flow was negative at R$37.1 million, compared to negative R$57.5 million in Q1 2024.

Outlook and guidance

• Expects solid results for the remaining nine months and full year 2025, with resolved transmission issues and favorable market conditions.

• Seasonality and favorable energy positions in 2H25 are expected to improve results.

• Management affirms business continuity for the next 12 months, with no material uncertainties identified.

• New as-gen PPA for Goodnight 1 in the US de-risks 2025 gross profit and leverages high Texas prices.

• Distributed Generation projects progressing, with 32 plants (83.9 MW) connected by April 2025 and full COD expected in 2025.