Solar (SOLAR) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Revenue for 2024 declined to DKK 12.2 billion from DKK 13 billion in 2023, with organic growth at -6.4% year-over-year; Q4 showed a 3% organic growth mainly due to a large PV park project by Solar Polaris.

• EBITDA for 2024 was DKK 646 million, above expectations, but underlying EBITDA (adjusted for non-recurring items) was DKK 565 million, down from DKK 6.5 million in 2023.

• All segments posted negative organic growth in 2024, with Solar Polaris entering the solar park segment and driving Q4 growth.

• Recovery was slower and less robust than anticipated, with gross profit margin declining across main categories.

• Dividend per share proposed at DKK 15, reflecting significant investments in automatization and digitalization.

Financial highlights

• FY 2024 revenue: DKK 12,223m (down from DKK 13,031m year-over-year); adjusted organic growth: -6.4%.

• Q4 2024 revenue: DKK 3,233m (up 2.3% year-over-year); Q4 adjusted organic growth: 3.0%.

• Underlying gross margin for Q4 was approximately 20.6%, stable with previous quarters.

• Cost reduction initiatives offset revenue headwinds, resulting in only minor margin dilution.

• Gross profit margin for FY 2024: 20.6% (22.5% in 2023); Q4 2024: 20.8% (22.4% in Q4 2023).

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 revenue guidance is DKK 12.3–12.8 billion, with organic growth expected between 1% and 5%.

• EBITDA guidance for 2025 is DKK 530–600 million, excluding one-off gains and costs.

• Gross margin in 2025 expected to be slightly lower due to continued price pressure and salary inflation, which cannot be passed on to customers.

• Ambitions for 2026 revised downward: climate energy share above 10% (from 15%), EBITDA margin above 5% (from above 6%).

• Recovery expected in 2025, but market improvements remain unpredictable; cost containment and staff reductions planned.