The AES Corporation (AES) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved or exceeded 2024 objectives, including $2.64 billion adjusted EBITDA, $2.14 adjusted EPS, $1.1 billion parent free cash flow, and 4.4 GW of new renewable PPAs, despite weather impacts in South America.

• Completed/acquired 3 GW of renewables, a 670 MW gas plant in Panama, and received regulatory approval for new rates and ROE in Indiana.

• Ranked #1 global provider of clean energy to corporations for the third consecutive year, with 70% of 2024 PPAs signed with large corporations.

• Strategic focus on high-return projects, organizational efficiency, and de-risking through asset sales and supply chain onshoring.

• Reaffirmed long-term growth targets and commitment to investment grade credit ratings and dividends.

Financial highlights

• 2024 Adjusted EBITDA was $2,639 million, down from $2,828 million in 2023, mainly due to drought and outages in South America and asset sales.

• Adjusted EPS increased to $2.14 from $1.76 in 2023, aided by tax benefits from U.S. renewables and new projects.

• Parent free cash flow was $1,107 million, up over 10% year-over-year and within guidance.

• Net income attributable to AES Corporation was $1,686 million, up from $242 million in 2023.

• Adjusted EBITDA with tax attributes reached $3,952 million, up from $3,439 million.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 guidance: Adjusted EBITDA of $2,650–$2,850 million, parent free cash flow of $1,150–$1,250 million, and adjusted EPS of $2.10–$2.26.

• Reaffirmed annualized growth targets: 5–7% for adjusted EBITDA, 6–8% for parent free cash flow, and 7–9% for adjusted EPS through 2027.

• 2025 marks an inflection point with over 60% expected year-over-year renewables EBITDA growth and 3.2 GW of new capacity coming online.

• No equity issuance needed through the guidance period; capital plan is self-funded.

• Quarterly dividend of $0.17595 expected to be maintained.