The Carlyle Group (CG) BMO Capital Markets 2026 Financials Conference summary

Private equity realizations and investment outlook

• Realizations returned ~18% of NAV globally and >20% in the U.S., versus ~12% industrywide; diversified portfolios and lower software exposure supported monetizations.

• The 2020–2021 industry concentration in software is slowing exits; many assets carry capital structures strained by high entry prices.

• Investment opportunities center on defense and national security, energy independence, supply-chain resilience, cybersecurity, healthcare, financial services and industrials.

• More than 90 industrial carve-outs completed; activity is accelerating in Europe, the U.S. and Japan, with two Japan carve-outs announced in 2026.

Buyout vintages and fundraising

• CP VII remains below expectations, but leadership has outlined a feasible path to LPs; the outlook is described as positive.

• CP VIII is 75% invested, with no portfolio company raising the usual major concern at this stage; the vintage is expected to perform well.

• CP IX fundraising is underway; first close expected this quarter or next, with timing dependent on a few large LPs. Fundraising conditions have improved marginally but remain harder than five years ago.

• A three-year $200B fundraising target spans U.S. buyout, a new defense and industrial fund, global energy, secondaries, opportunistic credit and Japan buyout; 2027–2028 expected to be especially busy.

• Private equity wealth product CPEP has crossed $1B; wirehouse expansion in 2027–2028 and larger RIAs are expected to support growth.

AlpInvest and secondaries

• Potomac’s structured solution earmarked $5B for the current U.S. buyout vintage while providing liquidity to LPs in prior vintages; LP response was very positive, and similar applications are under consideration.

• AlpInvest data covers 30,000+ companies and supports fund positioning, fundraising and cross-platform investment work; integration and collaboration have increased.

• Secondaries has five or six scaled competitors; 25+ years of GP relationships and proprietary data underpin AlpInvest’s scale and are viewed as barriers to new entrants.

• The equity secondaries market is $250B; credit secondaries is ~$25B and is expected by most observers to reach $50B+ within three years.