Topdanmark (TOP) Q4 2023 earnings summary

Executive summary

• FY2023 profit was DKK 1,051m, down from DKK 2,179m in 2022, which included DKK 1,102m from discontinued operations; Q4 profit was DKK 157m vs. DKK 1,376m.

• Insurance revenue grew 2.7% YoY, or 2.1% excluding Oona; weather-related and large-scale claims weighed on insurance service results.

Financial highlights

• FY2023 insurance revenue was DKK 10,168m vs. DKK 9,898m; insurance service result was DKK 1,507m vs. DKK 1,774m.

• Net investment result was DKK 97m vs. a DKK 244m loss in 2022; Q4 result was DKK 110m vs. DKK 193m.

• FY2023 profit before tax was DKK 1,424m vs. DKK 1,382m; continuing-operations profit after tax was DKK 1,051m vs. DKK 1,078m.

Outlook and guidance

• FY2024 profit forecast: DKK 1,150–1,425m; combined ratio 82–85 including run-off; organic insurance revenue growth above 4.5%.

• Reported insurance revenue growth is expected above 11.5%, including Oona Health from its 1 December 2023 acquisition.

• Guidance assumes DKK 315m normal weather claims, DKK 110m large-scale claims and an expense ratio around 17.5%; lower rates, higher expenses and claims frequencies are headwinds.