TotalEnergies (TTE) Strategy & Outlook 2024 summary

Strategic outlook and growth pillars

• Strategy is anchored on two pillars: oil & gas (notably LNG) and low-carbon/integrated power, with no major changes from previous years and a focus on balanced multi-energy growth.

• Energy demand is expected to grow 1.5% annually, especially in Asia, with LNG and renewables as key growth drivers.

• Oil & gas production is set to grow ~3-4% per year from 2025, with LNG portfolio to grow 50% by 2030 through projects in the US, Middle East, Africa, and Asia.

• Integrated power business targets over 100 TWh generation by 2030, with >70% from renewables and a 12%+ ROACE, aiming for positive free cash flow by 2028.

• Commitment to reduce Scope 1+2 emissions by 40% by 2030 vs 2015 and average carbon content of energy sales by 25%.

Financial guidance and shareholder returns

• Organic/Net CapEx guidance is $16-18 billion per year through 2030, with $5 billion annually for low-carbon energies and flexibility to reduce by $2 billion if prices drop.

• Free cash flow is projected to grow by over $10 billion by 2030 at $80/bbl, with $5 billion even at $60/bbl.

• Shareholder returns prioritized: payout ratio above 40% through cycles, with buybacks of $8 billion in 2024 and $2 billion per quarter in 2025, and dividend per share to increase by at least 5% in 2025.

• Dividend increased by 7% in 2023 and 2024, with further growth planned if free cash flow rises.

• Maintains a strong balance sheet with 10% gearing, Grade A credit rating, and flexibility to adjust CapEx and maintain returns in lower price environments.

Operational execution and project pipeline

• Upstream portfolio maintains 12 years of proved reserves, with production cost below $5/boe and declining emissions intensity.

• Six major oil & gas projects launched in 2024 across Brazil, Suriname, Angola, Oman, and Nigeria, supporting 2025-2026 growth above 3% per year.

• LNG exposure de-risked via long-term contracts indexed to Brent and US upstream gas acquisitions.

• Integrated power business leverages renewables, gas, and storage, with merchant exposure in power sales to rise from ~10% in 2024 to 30% by 2030.

• Cost discipline through digitalization, standardization, and procurement, targeting $500 million annual OpEx reduction over three years.