Transurban Group (TCL) H1 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Proportional toll revenue increased 6.2% to $1,872 million in 1H25, with traffic up 2.4% and all regions contributing to growth; average daily traffic reached 2.5 million trips.

• Proportional operating EBITDA rose 9.4% to $1,452 million, with margin expanding to 76.2% and improved cost control.

• Free cash grew 10.1% to $1,060 million, supporting a 32 cps interim distribution, 107% covered by free cash.

• Statutory net loss after tax was $15 million, mainly due to a $143 million ConnectEast litigation liability and higher finance costs.

• Major projects advanced in Melbourne (West Gate Tunnel), Sydney (M7-M12 Integration), and North America (495 Express Lanes extension), with technology and customer experience enhancements.

Financial highlights

• Proportional operating costs fell 3.0% to $453 million, supporting margin expansion.

• Operating EBITDA margin improved by 220bps to 76.2%.

• Statutory total revenue was $1,833 million, with a net loss after tax of $15 million due to litigation liability costs.

• Group debt at $25,464 million, with corporate liquidity of $2,799 million as of Dec 2024; 98.2% of debt hedged.

• Market capitalisation rose to $41.6 billion from $38.3 billion at June 2024.

Outlook and guidance

• FY25 distribution guidance reaffirmed at 65 cps, with expected free cash coverage within 95-105%.

• Cost growth for FY25 expected to remain below inflation, with maintenance and finance costs weighted to H2.

• Major project completions expected: West Gate Tunnel (end 2025), M7-M12 Integration (2026), 495 Express Lanes extension (late 2025).

• Distribution guidance remains subject to traffic performance and macroeconomic factors.

• Board considers distribution policy on a multi-year glide path, factoring in project ramp-ups and macroeconomic risks.