UBS Group (UBSG) Morgan Stanley European Financials Conference 2026 summary

Capital and regulatory outlook

• Advocates for internationally aligned, proportionate capital reforms, with clarity expected in weeks.

• Current proposals could require a $22 billion capital increase, down from $26 billion due to capital repatriation.

• Plans for CHF 3 billion share buyback in 2026, with potential for more pending capital reform clarity.

• Capital returns in 2026 expected to approach CHF 7 billion, nearing pre-acquisition levels.

Geopolitical and market environment

• Clients remain engaged but cautious amid geopolitical volatility; trading desks benefit from market dispersion.

• Market pricing reflects short-term inflationary shocks, not yet signaling growth concerns.

• Markets business remains supported in Q1, but ongoing monitoring is needed.

Private credit and risk management

• Lending to private credit funds is senior, secured, and represents 0.5% of total leverage exposure.

• No current systemic stress, but sector interconnectivity requires vigilance.

• Private credit remains in demand within asset management, with strong fund performance.