United Bank (UBL) Investor update summary

Investment portfolio and interest-rate exposure

• 10-year floater PIBs totaled PKR 5,871bn (8.5-year WAM; purchase spread above 100 bps); shorter-tenor floaters totaled PKR 1,038bn (3.1-year WAM; ~50 bps average spread).

• Floating-rate bonds were intended mainly to be held to maturity, with reset duration below 3 months; spreads rose to 99 bps on Mar 31 and later eased to 82 bps. Post-tax unrealized gain was PKR 46.8bn as of Apr 14, 2026.

• Fixed PIBs/Sukuks had a 12.8% weighted-average yield; 69% of fixed PIBs were AFS and 31% at amortized cost. AFS duration was 2.5 years; a 1% rate move would affect equity by PKR 21bn post-tax.

• A 1% rate rise was estimated to reduce CAR by ~40 bps. CAR was cited at 17.6% versus a 13% minimum; Apr 2026 CAR was 16.4%.

• Mar 2026 capital gains were PKR 33bn; fixed-bond post-tax unrealized loss was PKR 2.9bn as of Apr 14, with gains cited as a buffer against potential floater losses.

GCC exposure and outlook

• UAE government bonds totaled USD 413m at Mar 2026, including USD 159m already paid; remaining investments were described as AAA-rated, and holdings also provided liquidity.

• GCC investments totaled USD 1,745m, including USD 1,278m in GoP securities; GCC advances totaled USD 1,892m.

• Government entities and financial institutions represented 56.7% of advances; real-estate performance remained dependent on regional conflict developments.

• UAE deposit growth had stalled, with a possible 10%–15% quarterly decline; growth could recover if the conflict ends, potentially below prior levels.

• GCC contributed 12% of income; domestic operations could offset a potential decline in GCC profitability, and the portfolio was characterized as manageable.

Domestic business and financial outlook

• Rupee current deposits reached PKR 2,088bn in Mar 2026 from PKR 703bn in Dec 2022; total deposits reached PKR 5,394bn from PKR 1,842bn. Both nearly tripled in 39 months, with 40% and 39% CAGRs, respectively.

• 2025 market-share gains were ~2.4 percentage points, with strong Q1 2026 growth; deposits would be pursued only at profitable pricing, with no total-deposit ranking target and institutional balances described as rate-sensitive.

• Forex volume exceeded USD 19bn; trade market share was 9.6%, remittance volume USD 8.1bn with 20.1% market share, and export-refinance capacity constrained further export growth.

• FY2025 revenue rose 61% to PKR 419.6bn, post-tax profit 59% to PKR 128.0bn and EPS 56% to PKR 51.3; Q1 2026 revenue rose 42% to PKR 141.6bn and profit 38% to PKR 49.0bn.

• Q1 2026 NII grew 18% to PKR 99.4bn and non-interest income 170% to PKR 42.2bn; 2026 revenue was expected to match or exceed 2025, with current-account growth supporting NII. Dividend payout was expected to hold, with an increase possible in 2027 if conditions stayed stable.